Turkey is aggressively expanding its influence in South Asia through defence deals and by supporting Islamist movements, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood and its Bangladeshi ideological cousin, Jamaat-e-Islami. Following Hasina’s ouster, Ankara has utilised defence deals and ideological ties to aggravate an already deteriorating relationship between India and Bangladesh. A Turkey-Pakistan-Bangladesh strategic triad is emerging in the region and this realignment threatens the regional and Indo-Pacific power balance, prompting concerns from India and Arab monarchies. Ultimately, Turkey seeks to bypass regional adversaries while asserting itself as a global Islamic leader.
Turkey, which straddles both the Asian and European continents, remains at the core of global political and cultural ebb and flow. Its favorable strategic location has helped Turkey emerge as West Asia’s military and economic powerhouse. Today, Turkey is the envy of many neighbours for being the only veto-holding NATO member among all Muslim countries. This closeness to the West has however, not deterred Turkey from financing the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood (MB) movement, which poses a significant threat to the survival of Western civilization and democracy.
Turkey, which controls Russia's access to the Adriatic and Mediterranean Seas, joined the anti-Soviet NATO after the Second World War. Historically, the Russian Empire fought multiple wars to keep the Turkic Ottomans out of the Caucasus. Turkey wields enormous soft power in Russia's Muslim and Turco-Mongolic territories such as Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Chuvashia, Khakassia, Tuva, Yakutia, Altai Republic, Kabardino-Balkaria, Ingushetia, Adygea, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kumykia, Buryatia, Dagestan, Chechnya, Astrakhan, Udmurtia, Mari-El, Mordovia, Gagauz, and Kalmykia. These communities see themselves as part of the greater Turkic Fatherland and admire Erdogan as the Ottoman Empire's successor.
The Western powers that once catalysed the Ottoman Empire’s split and annihilation are now aiding President Erdogan with their wealth and geopolitical leverage to discreetly and methodically restore its past grandeur and glory. The West sees a strategic benefit in encouraging Erdogan to expand ties with brotherly communities in Russia's Caucasus, Urals, and Siberia that espouse nationalist and Islamist objectives.
The Gulf and North African kingdoms that emerged from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire's collapse are concerned about Turkey's expansionist ambitions. Arab rulers accuse Erdogan of assisting MB-proxies in weakening their powers and bringing the Arabs of the Gulf and North Africa under his sway. The MB, which advocates for global Muslim supremacy, censures Arab monarchs as Western stooges undermining the Muslim unity. Previously, MB-inspired Palestinians attempted to depose Jordan's Hashemite king, which resulted in military retaliation and subsequent deaths of over 25,000 Palestinians. Despite aggressive Turkish campaign, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman of oil-rich Saudi Arabia continues to challenge Erdogan's designs to emerge as the Islamic Caliph.
Turkey’s claim as the champion of Muslim Ummah is undermined by the ongoing genocide and forced displacement of its own Alawis, Bektashis, and Kurd Muslims. President Erdogan makes loud attempts to earn Muslim support by projecting a strong religious front on Kashmir and Palestine. However, talking about liberties for Muslims in India and Israel rings hollow when lesser Muslims, such as Kurds and Bektashis within Turkey's borders, remain deprived of basic religious rights. How could anyone forget that Erdogan’s followers murdered a Kurd parliamentarian for speaking about persecution of the Kurds, inside the parliament building? Similarly, the twenty-five million strong Bektashis, often dubbed as Shias, face an on-going state-led discrimination including target killings of scholars and artists and violent attacks on religious centres and revered shrines. The lack of rule of law and basic freedoms has pushed EU leaders to postpone accession discussions with Ankara indefinitely.
Pakistan and Bangladesh, which have nearly 430 million Muslims, are among the primary beneficiaries of Turkey's expanding economic and military clout. Turkey is pursuing a twofold policy in Pakistan: first, extending military aid to enhance Pakistan’s self-confidence in adopting a belligerent posture vis-a-vis India, and second, supporting terrorism in Kashmir to bleed India with a thousand cuts. Pakistan's military recently reciprocated its loyalty to Erdogan by providing diplomatic, moral and political support to Azerbaijanis in its conflict with Armenia. In September 2021, shortly after the 2020 war, Pakistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan conducted the “Three Brothers” military drills in Baku to strengthen tactical cooperation.
Turkey sees India through an Ottoman lens and wishes to extend its influence among the Muslims of the Indian subcontinent, like in the days of the Turco-Mongols. The rising anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh today, after Hasina’s exit and exile in India, offers numerous strategic prospects to isolate India in the Bay of Bengal area. Many opine that the victory of the Islamists against Sheikh Hasina’s reign is the strategic miracle Turkey has been long waiting for. Transforming Bangladesh into a formidable force against Indi by bolstering extremist Islamic organizations such as Jamat Islami and MB falls in line with the existing adversarial relationship with India.
According to the Asia Times, India is concerned about Turkey's burgeoning defence deals with Bangladesh, which includes arms manufacturing and technology transfer. With Turkey’s help, Bangladesh is building defence corridors and localising tank and missile production. Within short time, Turkey is poised to become Bangladesh's primary supplier of modern air defence systems including TB2 drones, T129 helicopters, Hisar O+ missiles, and SİPER long-range SAMs.
Turkey, accused of providing sanctuary and training to Pakistani terrorists on its soil, might offer a similar advantage to Bangladeshi Islamists. As a NATO member, Turkey’s relationship with Bangladesh will trigger a strategic shift in South Asia; potentially upsetting Indo-Pacific power equation.
Bangladesh's Islamist movements have the marrow to become significantly more powerful and lethal against India than those in Pakistan. With an overwhelming 90% of its population speaking the same language and adhering to the same Islamic sect, Bangladesh offers a homogenous social fabric in contrast to Pakistan, where ethnic, linguistic, tribal, and sectarian barriers and fissures impede people's unity and produce political confusion, lethargy and divisions.
Turkey accuses India of damaging its interests by strengthening ties with Israel, Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus. Turkey also sees India's links with Arab monarchs and the possible establishment of the ‘IMEC’ economic corridor as a direct threat to its historical commercial dominance in the Mediterranean and Balkans. The situation has prompted Turkey to embrace long-standing adversaries such as China and Iraq in order to provide a serious challenge to India's expansion to Europe.
Both India and the Arab monarchies are concerned about Bangladesh's fall to the Islamists, and they may expand cooperation if Turkey fails to discontinue its support for Islamist forces. In the long run, India could also act as a bridge between Arabs, Greeks, and Armenians for stability in the Caucasus, Balkans, and Mediterranean.
As of now, several states have outlawed the MB within their domains; however, the American choice to back regime change in Bangladesh has strengthened the position of its sister organisation, the Jamaat. In the Western Asian theatre, the Kurds are best placed to counter the bases of MB in West Asia, and the international community interested in stifling Islamism should assist Kurds in establishing themselves as a free nation.
*Senge Sering is founder of Institute for Gilgit Baltistan Studies based in USA. He is an independent analyst. The views expressed are his own
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