The Pak-Afghan Border Clashes: Fallout of Unrealistic Expectations?

Introduction

Ever since August 2021, when Taliban fighters captured the seat of power in Kabul, the bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan started deteriorating. It was primarily because of Pakistan’s unrealistic expectations from the Taliban. The politico-security elites of Pakistan have historically desired to enjoy what many term as “Strategic Depth” in Afghanistan under a puppet or pliant regime in Kabul. For this very purpose, they heavily invested their time, energy, and borrowed resources to ensure that a pro-Pakistan force occupies the war-torn nation of Afghanistan. The idea was to use the Afghan land and regime to further their own geo-political objectives in the region and beyond as they were doing when a pliant regime was in power in Kabul.

This was especially the case in mid-1990s when Mullah Omar led Taliban emerged as a dominant force in the country. Pakistan backed it and after successful installation of Taliban 1.0 regime in Kabul, it used its influence in Afghanistan to create severe security problems for other countries including India. From the bombing of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, hijacking of Indian Airline IC814 in 1999 to the notorious 9/11 attacks on the US in 2001, all were traced back to the Pak-Taliban nexus in the region. After 9/11, Pakistan was forced to help in US-led War on Terror, apparently with hesitation, that resulted in the toppling of Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

Pakistan exploited and encashed the geo-political opportunity that came on its way in post-9/11 period without completely compromising on its linkages with the Taliban and other forces of terror in the region. Such fine tightrope balancing approach of Pakistan was labelled by many as “running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.” This was done with utmost care and meticulous planning so that the linkages with Taliban fighters, extremist forces and terror outfits could be retained and exploited in future. They also kept India out of any important discussion and deliberation on the questions surrounding peace and stability in the region. Indian role was limited to humanitarian aid building of infrastructure and reconstruction projects.

The Shifting Approach under Taliban 2.0

The situation in the region dramatically changed in the wake of complete US withdrawal and emergence of Taliban 2.0 set-up in Kabul. Unlike in the past, the new Taliban administration was not at all ready to blindly follow the Pakistani dictate. It was more pragmatic and open to engage other countries on the basis of mutual interest and respect. Right since the beginning, it also made it clear that Afghan land would not be used against any other country in the region and beyond. This was a welcome and positive shift recognised by many observers and analysts. Pakistan did not like this shift, as the new Taliban set-up refused to favourably respond to each and every Pakistani request. Soon, bilateral tensions emerged and deepened before coming out in the open. Later, the relations nosedived over the presence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters in Afghanistan.

Pakistan, now, accuses Afghanistan of providing safe heaven, sanctuary and significant support to the dreaded TTP fighters who regularly target its security forces and citizens in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and other parts of the country. It is believed that TTP fighters are present in at least four bordering provinces— Kunar, Nangarhar, Khost and Paktika in Afghanistan— from where they launch their attacks inside Pakistan. In June 2024, while speaking in the National Assembly, Defence Minister Khwaja Asif stated:

…terrorism is being exported from Afghanistan to our land, and there is evidence of terrorist hideouts there…We also have the right to retaliate in defence of our people…If they choose to side with the terrorists, it will be clear that they support terrorism. They have ties with the Taliban and have brought 6,000 members of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) here.^[1]

TTP has undoubtedly emerged as the biggest threat to Pakistan’s internal security in the recent past. Due to a number of reasons, Pakistan finds it quite difficult to effectively deal with this Frankenstein Monster which they themselves were responsible to create in the first place. The TTP and its various splinter groups carried out around 600 attacks against the security forces of Pakistan in 2024.^[2] However, according to TTP, it had carried out 1758 attacks in 2024 with 1284 casualties. The year 2025 is no different as both the number of attacks and their intensity has increased significantly. Pakistan’s counter-terror operations in the tribal belt bordering Afghanistan have met with limited success and that too with a heavy price in the form of deterioration of security situation in KP.  

Pakistani Airstrikes in Afghanistan

Afghanistan, on its part, has always rejected Pakistani claims of sheltering and nurturing TTP fighters as baseless. It considers the issue of TTP as an internal problem of Islamabad which, in their opinion, must be resolved by Pakistan itself. When no amount of pressure tactics and arm-twisting including the forcible expulsions of a large number of Afghan refugees worked, Pakistan thought of taking unilateral action relying on brute military force. On 9 October 2025, Khwaja Asif in one of his tweets stated that despite years of negotiations with Afghanistan, the bloodshed in Pakistan did not stop. He asserted that Pakistan was paying the price of hosting 6 million Afghan refugees for the last 60 years.^[3]

On the same day, Pakistan launched a coordinated assault inside Afghanistan. Explosions were heard primarily in Paktika province and Afghan capital in Kabul. This was confirmed by none other than the Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid.^[4] Pakistan neither confirmed nor denied hitting targets deep inside Afghanistan. There were unconfirmed reports in Pakistani media that Noorwali Mehsud, head of TTP was taken out in these attacks, which turned out to be false. The airstrikes were a clear violation of national sovereignty, which might have prompted Afghanistan to respond to what they termed unprovoked actions of Pakistan. This was unusual on part of Pakistan to undertake such action in Kabul. The last such air-strikes in Afghanistan were carried out by the US in 2022 while targeting Al-Qaeda Chief Al-Zawahiri.

As per the official spokesperson of Afghanistan, in its retaliatory response at the mountainous border on the intervening night of 10 and 11 October, Pakistan lost about five dozen security personnel.^[5] Pakistani officials disputed the claim by saying that it lost 23 members of the armed forces and killed as many as 200 “Taliban and affiliated terrorists.” Both sides also claimed to have captured each other’s military posts across the border. Saudi Arabia and Qatar expressed concern over the development and called for self-restraint to avoid further escalations between the two countries after which the guns fell silent on the border. However, the situation remained tense. 

After a brief lull, the clashes again broke out in the intervening night of 14-15 October resulting in dozens of death on both sides of the border. This time, Pakistan expanded the area of operation and went on to target both Kabul and Kandahar through armed drones. Both the countries accused each other of unprovoked firing at the border. A temporary ceasefire for 48 hours was brokered by Qatar on 15 October. The two sides later announced that the ceasefire was reached on request of the other side.^[6]  This appears to be one of the fiercest military engagements involving Pakistan and Afghanistan in the region in recent years. Militarily, Pakistan is much superior. However, one should also not forget that Taliban are notorious to take on the mighty enemies when it comes to defend their homeland.

The India Outreach

It is important to note that the clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan started at a time when Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was on a historical six-day visit to India. Many believe that Muttaqi’s visit to India did not go down well in Pakistan.  The way he was received in the country and conducted himself during his stay seems to have rattled Pakistan to the core. Some observers and analysts are of the view that Pakistani airstrikes are intended to send a strong message to Afghanistan that their growing closeness with India will come with certain associated costs. In a response to a question in India, Muttaqi said that Afghanistan was in favour of peaceful relations with all of its neighbours. He also underlined the resolve of Afghan people to defend their motherland from even the fiercest and mightiest enemies in the world.

Conclusion

The recent clashes indicate Pakistan’s growing frustration with the Taliban arising primarily out of its unmet expectations and recent bonhomie in India-Afghanistan relations. Given the history of instability and violence in the region, it is not a good sign that Pakistan has picked up a fight with Afghanistan at a time when the important international capitals including Russia, China and India are engaging the country with a view to facilitating peace, stability and economic development in the war torn country. Those at the helm in Kabul may have their own set of issues and problems at the moment, however, they would not tolerate military action of a foreign country beyond a point.

Endnotes/References

[1] “Khawaja Asif asserts Pakistan’s right to retaliate against terrorism from Afghanistan”, The Express Tribune, 28 June 2024.

[2] Pandya, Pearl (2025), “The battle for the borderlands: The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan challenges the state’s control”, Armed Conflict, Location & Event Data (ACLELD) Report, 6 October 2025.

^{[3] Khwaja M. Asif X account post}, 9 October 2025.

[4] Hussain, Abid (2025), “Taliban blame Pakistan after explosions in Kabul, amid outreach to India”, AlJazeera, 10 October 2025.

[5] Davies, Carrie Stuart Lau et.al. (2025), “Afghan Taliban says Pakistani troops killed in 'retaliatory' border attacks, BBC Report, 12 October 2025.

[6] Syed, Baqir Sajjad (2025), “Ceasefire declared after Pakistan hits targets in Kabul, Kandahar”, Dawn, 16 October 2025.