BNP’s sweeping 2026 victory has prompted a more sober, pragmatic approach to India. The article argues that geography and economic interdependence leave Dhaka little choice but to engage New Delhi seriously. BNP’s development ambitions, from port expansion to energy generation, require stable cooperation with India’s markets, grids, and transit routes. Yet historical mistrust persists, rooted in insurgency concerns from 2001–06 and sensitive issues such as minority protection. Water sharing, border killings, and migration remain perennial flashpoints. The piece concludes that BNP must balance China and Pakistan carefully while grounding its neighbourhood policy in stability with India.
BNP’s rise reshapes bilateral priorities, especially water sharing, border security, and trade imbalances.
China’s role expands, with Dhaka signalling openness to Beijing’s Teesta project and broader cooperation.
India and BNP show early pragmatism, but historical mistrust means the reset will be delicate and contested.
The 13th national election in Bangladesh has been historic with Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) securing a decisive mandate of two-thirds majority in the country’s 300 parliamentary seats. Party chairman Tarique Rahman, now elected as the leader of the parliamentary party BNP is set to become Bangladesh’s prime minister. Post-Hasina Bangladesh certainly has been witnessing many changes, notably, political absence of Awami League, an election shaped by Gen Zs and Jamaat-e-Islami’s biggest electoral win ever in the parliament (68 seats and 31.87 per cent of votes). For New Delhi, this political transition in Bangladesh brings a sigh of relief, but also a lingering discomfort.
Since Hasina’s deposition and ostracisation of Awami League after 2024 July Uprising, the BNP revived as Bangladesh’s leading political party in the electoral race. Until December 2025, the party continued its historical pattern of adversarial rhetoric with respect to India. Soon after Sheikh Hasina’s exile, senior BNP leader Abdul Moyeen Khan claimed that India had committed a “massive policy blunder” for “putting all its eggs in one basket”, indicating New Delhi’s approach towards Bangladesh to be ‘one-party/family centric’, promoting a government-to-government friendship instead of people-to-people, and called India’s need of the hour to have a “renewed look”. In December 2024, three affiliated organisations of the BNP held a long march from Dhaka to Akhaura land port (bordering India’s Tripura) to protest alleged India’s aggression, interference and backing an autocratic regime.
Weeks after Bangladesh signed an MoU with China (29 January 2025), handing it the Teesta River project, the BNP launched another march ‘Jago Bahe Teesta Bachai’(11 February 2025), joined by thousands and covering 11 locations of Bangladesh’s Teesta basin districts. The sit-in marches became part of BNP’s Teesta River Protection Movement programme. The protestors demanded fair-share of Teesta water from India, and blamed the latter of “unfriendly behaviour” over what they described to be an “unequal, unjust and unilateral” agreement and control of the transboundary river. Moreover, Tarique Rahman, BNP chairman (then acting) also pledged to go to United Nations to implement Teesta Master Plan, if voted to power, and remarked the need for revaluation of all ‘one-sided agreements’. The party further expressed support for Beijing’s assistance and stated to consider China’s proposal positively if elected. One could sense BNP’s electoral campaign of presenting the water sharing issues with India as the party’s key priority, months before the interim government announced a roadmap.
In an interview with BBC Bangla last October, Tarique Rahman blamed ‘India’s sheltering an autocrat’ as the reason behind its present unpopularity in Bangladesh, noting that he would ‘keep his distance’ from India as people in Bangladesh have decided so. Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, party secretary general, criticising what he called India’s ‘overbearing attitude’, remarked to resolve water-sharing disputes (including Ganga water-sharing treaty that expires this year), border killings and trade imbalances with India to be the party’s key focuses with India, if voted to power.
The return of Tarique Rahman to Dhaka in December from his 17-year exile in London received mass reception in the city, a major boost for BNP’s long leadership vacuum and resetting the party’s electoral momentum at a crucial phase. The homecoming followed due to BNP’s chairperson Khaleda Zia’s (also Bangladesh’s two-time prime minister) critical illness. India expressed deep concern over Begum Zia’s deteriorating health, with PM Modi taking to the social media platform ‘X’ to wish her ‘speedy recovery’, adding that “India stands ready to extend all possible support, in whatever way we can”. BNP in return extended its sincere gratitude, appreciating PM’s message as a ‘gesture of goodwill’, one of its party leaders even calling it a ‘great move’. The demise of Khaleda Zia on 30 December and Indian external affairs minister Jaishankar’s visit to Dhaka to attend Begum Zia’s funeral, where he personally submitted PM Modi’s condolence message to Rahman, were framed as New Delhi’s showcasing its diplomatic pragmatism and openness to ties with post-Hasina Bangladesh, and recognition of BNP as a significant political actor in it. Indeed, this gesture boded well with the BNP, as its earlier anti-India rhetoric has since waned, signalling a willingness for respectful engagement with New Delhi on contentious issues, if it would win the electoral mandate.
BNP chairman Tarique Rahman launched the party’s official electoral campaign with the slogan “Na Dilli, Na Pindi, Bangladesh first”, asserting BNP as a patriotic, nationalist party that would make Bangladesh self-reliant, and not “enslaved” to any country (indirectly indicating India prior to July Uprising). Its 51-point manifesto Shobar Agey Bangladesh (Bangladesh Before All) BNP’s foreign policy defined as ‘Friend Yes, Master No’ includes effective measures to claim fair share of water from common rivers like Teesta and Padma, strict position on stopping border killings and border push-ins, strategic partnership with Muslim world, revival of SAARC and efforts to gain ASEAN membership.
Responding to Indian PM’s congratulatory message to Tarique Rahman, BNP has signalled for constructive engagement with New Delhi. BNP’s head of election management committee Nazrul Islam Khan called Bangladesh’s relationship with India is ‘expected to strengthen’ under Rahman’s leadership. In the first post-poll press conference, BNP chairman remarked to pursue its foreign policy with India, China and Pakistan that ‘protects the country’s interest’. Rahman also expressed interest in reviving SAARC and discuss with ‘friendly states’, calling the now defunct organisation a Bangladesh initiative. BNP Standing Committee member Salauddin Ahmad stated that his party will formally seek Sheikh Hasina’s extradition in ‘accordance with law’. Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, BNP Secretary General, recently said Hasina’s stay (in India) will not be a barrier to bilateral ties, a refreshing change from party’s earlier stance of viewing as Hasina’s stay as a sabotage attempt by New Delhi.
Both Delhi and Dhaka, at least for now, showcase pragmatism and readiness for engagement sans the Hasina factor. Competing issues such as water sharing, border management and security would likely be major bilateral hurdles. Right now, the diplomatic thaw suffered under Bangladesh’s interim government awaits a reset, to kickstart people-to-people connectivity and borderland livelihood above all. One can only hope, India-Bangladesh ties will not face the same fate like in BNP’s previous tenure (2001-06).
A BNP‑led Bangladesh offers India both relief and uncertainty, demanding a careful diplomatic recalibration on water, borders, and regional geopolitics.
Dr. Ankita Sanyal is working as Associate Research Fellow at ICPS, New Delhi. She has a doctoral degree from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. The views expressed here are her own.
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