Pakistan’s security establishment is re-weaving its familiar narrative—framing India as an existential threat to unify a fractured society. The army has episodically reemphasized its love of Islamic values, fueled jihad, and radicalized the nation sparking crises like the 2025 Pahalgam attack. This paper explores the Army’s narrative control, internal security failures, and regional provocations, urging global scrutiny of its destabilizing tactics.
Social constructivists emphasize that shared societal beliefs play a pivotal role in shaping the distinct identity of a society, which influence its collective interests. These collective interests, in turn, dictate the behaviour of the society as a whole. According to constructivist theory, any significant transformation in societal behaviour can only occur when there is a shift in the underlying shared beliefs that unify the society.
In the context of Pakistan, the unique historical trajectory and inherent nature of the state have positioned the security establishment as a dominant force in shaping and controlling what is often referred to as the Grand National Narrative (GNN). Through a multitude of tools and strategies, this narrative is carefully crafted to reflect security-centric priorities. Notably, the GNN is deeply intertwined with the nation's perception of India— a country that many within Pakistan's military circles regard as an “existential threat.” This fixation on India forms the cornerstone of Pakistan's national security discourse, reinforcing a narrative that influences the nation’s political, strategic, and societal outlook.
Attempts to Repair Military’s Image
Since assuming office in November 2022, Gen. Asim Munir has actively pursued two key objectives: enhancing the institutional image of the Pakistan Army and exerting control over the national narrative. However, his efforts have been hindered by relentless political strife at home. This domestic turmoil has left little room for him to address other pressing issues, including the deteriorating internal security landscape marked by the resurgence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the heightened activity of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA).
The security establishment's handling of this volatile situation, coupled with Imran Khan's widespread popularity, began to tarnish the Pakistan Army's institutional image—a development that shocked many ordinary Pakistanis who had long held the Army in high regard. Discontent also brewed within the ranks of retired military personnel and some serving officers, who disapproved of the establishment's approach toward Imran Khan and other PTI leaders. For an image-conscious Pakistan Army, this growing dissatisfaction was a matter that could no longer be ignored. Desperate to reclaim prestige, Munir has now turned to narrative control, leveraging internal and external threats.
Internal Chaos, Military Gambits
A nation teetering on chaos, Pakistan faces resurgent threats from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). In June 2024, the Army launched Operation Azm-e-Istehkam (resolve for stability) pledging a sweeping crusade against terrorism. The move vowed to unleash the full military, diplomatic, legislative and socio-economic arsenal to decisively defeat terrorism and extremism.[1] Yet, it faltered, lacking political consensus and public support.[2] Soon after the announcement, PTI government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) made it clear that it would not support Operation Azm-e-Istehkam until its details and procedures were clarified.[3] This was followed by the opposition from Awami National Party (ANP). ANP’s Mian Iftikhar expressed serious reservation about the decision to launch Operation Azm-e-Istehkam and said that roots of terrorism lie in Punjb instead.[4]
The operation’s failure emboldened insurgents. BLA launched a major sophisticated initiative, code-named Operation Herof, against Pakistan on 25 August 2024. BLA’s Majeed Brigade, Special Tactical Operation Sqad, and Fatah Squad not only took control of Frontier Corps Bela Camp for about 20 hours, they captured and controlled major highways for about 12 hours. The press release issued by BLA on 26 August 2024, claimed to have killed 130 military personnel.[5] BLA also claimed to have lost seven suicide bombers in the operation.
On 4 March 2025, TTP’s audacious and well-coordinated attack on a northwestern base killed 12 and wounded 30.[6] As the security establishment was grappling with the situation, on 11 March 2025, BLA hijacked Peshawar bound Jaffar express--a train linking Quetta, Lahore, Peshawar and Islamabad via Sindh and serving as a vital artery and a key transport route for off-duty security personnel to travel to their homes and posting stations. This prompted the military to launch a highly sophisticated rescue operation.[7] BLA, through various press releases issued between 11 and 14 March 2025 claimed to have killed all 214 enemy personnel held as hostage and lost 12 of its fighters including five Fidayeen of its Majeed Brigade.[8] Pakistan Army, on its part, through a joint press conference of Director General Inter Services Public Relations (DGISPR) and Chief Minister of Balochistan claimed to have killed 33 BLA fighters and lost 26 people including 18 security personnel.[9]
Blame Thy Neighbour, Stoke Jihad
Instead of addressing the challenges posed by homegrown terror outfits and armed ethno-nationalist forces, the security establishment resorted to the old and time-tasted ‘Blame Thy Neighbour’ approach. In order to divert people’s attention from their own failures to handle internal security situation, Foreign Office Spokesperson, Shafqat Ali Khan stated that “India is involved in sponsoring terrorism against Pakistan…We have evidence of calls being traced to Afghanistan.”[10] Both, Afghanistan and India rejected these charges. The Official Spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), rejected these charges saying “Pakistan should look inwards instead of pointing fingers and shifting the blame for its own internal problems and failures on to others.”[11]
As these tactics did not yield the desired result, Pakistan continued to look for ways to raise temperatures across the eastern border. On 16 April 2025, Gen. Asim Munir addressed a convention for overseas Pakistanis in Islamabad in which he not only emphasized on the Two Nation Theory as the raison de’tre for the creation of Pakistan, he went on to reiterate Muhammad Ali Jinna’s oft-repeated phrase “Kashmir is the jugular vein of Pakistan.”[12] In an unusually harsh and aggressive tone, commenting on the internal security situation, he categorically stated:
Do you think, terrorists can take away the destiny of the country from us. If 1.3 million Indian Army with all their wherewithal, if they cannot intimidate us and they cannot coerce us, these terrorists can subdue the armed forces of Pakistan?…Our stance, government’s stance on Kashmir is absolutely clear…We will not leave our Kashmiri brethren in their heroic struggle what they are waging against the Indian occupation and we have fought three wars for Kashmir.[13]
The Horror of Pahalgam
Asim Munir’s address to the overseas Pakistanis was no less an indication and a veiled threat to India with respect to situation in Kashmir. The 22 April Pahalgam attack, killing 26 tourists in Baisaran Valley, was a brutal riposte to India’s post-Article 370 progress in Kashmir. A peaceful assembly election in 2024 and formation of government was paving the way for fast pacing normalcy, growth and development and most importantly Kashmiri peoples’ increasing confidence and faith in the Indian political system. This made the security establishment realize that there were not many takers of their point of view left in Kashmir. Thus, came the Pahalgam terror attack killing dozens of unarmed, innocent tourists holidaying in the picturesque Baisaran valley. The massacre shattered Kashmir’s tourism hub, gutting hopes of peace. The timing of the terror attack coincided with American Vice President J D Vance’s India visit. The attack and killings of this magnitude was bound to invite a befitting response from India.
Putting IWT in Abeyance: Water as a Weapon?
In the wake of Pahalgam terror attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi cut short their respective foreign visits and immediately returned to India. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) met under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister on 23 April and took certain tough decisions including putting Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross border terrorism.[14] The committee also downgraded the bilateral relations further by scaling down strengths of the High Commissions and declaring the Defence/Military, Naval and Air Advisors in the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi Persona Non Grata.
Pakistan did not expect India to go to the extent of suspending IWT. Therefore, it came as a chilling down the spine. It immediately announced to convene the National Security Committee (NSC) meeting to prepare a possible response to Indian decisions. At the conclusion of the NSC meet, it came up with a tit for tat measures and declared inter alia that water was a vital national interest for Pakistan and any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the IWT, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian would be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.[15] Pakistan also made it clear that it “shall exercise the right to hold all bilateral agreements with India, including but not limited to Simla Agreement, in abeyance.”[16]
Fear of Escalation: Brink of War
The post-Pahalgam developments indicate that the spectre of war loom in the horizon. Even though right-minded individuals in India, Pakistan and elsewhere would not favour of an outright war between the two neighbours as it would wreak havoc and invite death and destruction in the region. In the past, in similar circumstances, Nawaz Sharif had used his contacts in the Indian industry to reach out to political dispensation at the helm in New Delhi to diffuse the situation. Although, there is no information of such an attempt this time, at least in public domain, one cannot rule out the possibility of his brother Shehbaz Sharif doing the same. Indeed, while speaking at Pakistan Military Academy (PMA), Kakul he condemned the Pahalgam terror attack and underlined that Pakistan was open to participate in any neutral, transparent and credible investigation.[17] There are also reports of cross firing at the Line of Control (LoC) in which the two sides exchanged fires. This has not resulted in any significant damage so far. However, things could change if the situation escalates further.
Media Breathing Fire
The vernacular media in Pakistan is breathing fire and some journalists are seen thumping their chests and even inviting India to launch an attack. Situation is not much different in India either. Some of the Pakistani journalist even claim that two Indian dams and a Brigade Headquarter are in the line of Pakistan’s missiles. One Pakistani journalist in his v-log on 25 April 2025 claimed that India might target Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) Chief Maulana Masood Azhar’s mosque located in Bahawalpur and Hafiz Saeed’s “No Longer Operational” terror camps, where Lashkar-e-Toiba (Let) trained its foot soldiers, and its headquarters at Muridke.[18] In such a situation, he predicted, Pakistan would respond by targeting Uri-II Power Project in Salamabad, Brigade Headquarters in Uri and Bagalihar dam in Jammu.[19] In another v-log, it was claimed that given the rising tensions with India over Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan has activated its air defence system in and around Muridke, Bahawalpur, Lahore and parts of Punjab.[20]
On 26 April 2025, India released excess water (about 22,00 cusec) from its Uri dam without giving any prior intimation to Pakistan which created a moderate flood like situation in Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK).[21] As per reports, about 22000 cusec water was released into Jhelum river because the two dams Uri-I and Uri-II could not store water for a long time.[22] Earlier, India used to inform Pakistan beforehand. However, since it has suspended IWT, it did not apparently provide prior information of water release. This act heightened tensions, reflecting the mood in India to respond to terror by all means.
Conclusion
The security establishment in Pakistan has long demonstrated a knack for transforming unfavourable circumstances into opportunities to consolidate its influence within the country. True to form, it appears to have mobilized once again, leveraging the current crisis as a strategic opening. Efforts are underway to craft a new narrative cantered around water issues—an attempt not only to rehabilitate its tarnished societal image but also to divert public attention from its persistent failures in addressing internal security challenges.
In this context, a prominent Pakistani news anchor, reputedly aligned with influential circles, has labeled India a “water thief”. He further alleged that India is exploiting the Pahalgam terror attack as a pretext to appropriate Pakistan's water resources.[23]Besides, Shehbaz Sharif, during the passing out parade at PMA inter alia said that:
Nobody should remain under any kind of false impression and confusion, our valiant armed forces remain fully capable and prepared to defend the country’s sovereignty and its territorial integrity against any misadventure as clearly demonstrated by its measured yet resolute response to India’s reckless incursions in February 2019.[24]
Earlier, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari during a public meeting in Sukkur on 25 April had stated that “Sindhu hamara hai, aur Sindhu hamara rahega; Ya iss dariya se hamara pani bahega, ya unka khoon bahega (The Indus River is ours and will remain ours--either our water will flow through it, or their blood).”[25]Attempts are also on to bring Imran Khan, currently lodged in Adiala Jail on corruption charges, and PTI on board to show a united front against India to the world in general, and to India in particular. It indicates that Pakistan army is not only dominating the India-centric national security narrative in Pakistan but also ascertaining its full control over Pakistan micromanaging every important decision at every step. This, in no way, is a good sign for peace and stability in the region.
Endnotes
[1] Syed, Baqir Sajjad (2024), “Govt unleashes offensive to ‘decisively’ end terrorism,” Dawn, 23 June 2024.
[2] Rehman, Zia Ur (2024), “What makes Azm-i-Istehkam different from operations past?, Dawn, 30 July 2024.
[3] “K-P govt withholds support for Operation Azm-e-Istehkam,” The Express Tribune, 24 June 2024.
[4] “After PTI, ANP also opposes ‘Azm-e-Istehkam’ Operation”, The Express Tribune, 24 June 2024.
[5] Bahot, “Operation Herof was The First Phase of Reclaiming Control over Baloch Land-BLA…”, X (formerely Twitter), 26 August 2024.
[6] Khan, Riaz (2025), “12 killed, 30 wounded in Pakistan military base attack launched by suicide bombers,” Associated Press, 5 March 2025.
[7] “Troops in action after terrorists hijack train, take hostages,” The Express Tribune, 12 March 2025.
[8] “All 214 Hostages Executed, Battle is Still Ongoing-BLA,” BLA Press Release,” 14 March 2025.
[9] ISPR Official, “DG ISPR Press Conference”, YouTube, 14 March 2025.
[10] “Transcript of the Media Briefing by the Spokesperson Thursday, 13 March 2025”, Press Release, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), Islamabad, Pakistan, 13 March 2025.
[11] “Official Spokesperson’s Response to Media Queries Regarding Remarks Made by the Pakistan Side,” Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, 14 March 2025.
[12] “Army Chief Asim Munir’s Full Speech From Convention for Overseas Pakistanis”, Dawn News, YouTube, 16 April 2025.
[13] Ibid.
[14] MEA (2025), “Statement by Foreign Secretary on the decision of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS)”, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, 23 April 2025.
[15] “‘India’s worn-out narrative’: Full text of statement on NSC’s decisions”, Dawn, 24 April 2025.
[16] “Pakistan suspends Simla Agreement: What is the pact Indira Gandhi, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto signed in 1972?,” The Indian Express, 24 April 2025.
[17] “Pakistan Military Academy Kakul Passing Out Parade, PM Shehbaz Sharif's Bold Speech”, Sama TV, YouTube, 26 April 2025.
[18] “Modi’s Attack Plan Backfires, 2 Indian Dams on Pakistan’s Hit List, Indian Agenceis Admit Defeat,” YouTube, 25 April 2025.
[19] Ibid.
[20] “Pakistan and India on the Brink of War,” YouTube, 24 April 2025.
[21] Khan, Omer Farooq (2025), “India’s sudden Jhelum water release sparks panick in PoK”, Times of India, 27 April 2025.
[22] “India Releases Excess Water Into Jhelum Without Warning”, Geo News, YouTube, 26 April 2025.
[23] “India — A “WATER THIEF””, YouTube, 24 April 2025.
[24] “Pakistan Military Academy Kakul Passing Out Parade, PM Shehbaz Sharif's Bold Speech”, Sama TV, YouTube, 26 April 2025.
[25] Shamsi, Waseem (2025), “Bilawal vows to protect Indus River from Indian ‘attack’”, Dawn, 26 April 2025.
