The Fragility of Cessation of Hostilities between India and Pakistan

It’s been more than two weeks since the two archrivals in South Asia agreed to what is known as the “cessation of military action” against each other. There were reports of some intermittent violations immediately after the cessation but largely the LoC and international border between the two countries have remained calm and peaceful. The initial truce agreed between the two DGMOs on 10 May 2025 was reinforced during the discussions between the two officials that followed the cessation. Speculation in some quarters about the cessation being a short term measure was put to rest by none other than the Indian Army which clarified that the understanding between the two sides had “no expiry date”.^[1] This is a welcome development, however, there are certain questions which need answers.

The Pahalgam terror attack, carried out by The Resistance Front (TRF)—an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)—brought the two nuclear-armed nations perilously close to a full-scale conflict. Given the entrenched history of cross-border terrorism in the region, India’s strategic community finds it increasingly difficult to differentiate between militant groups and their handlers embedded within Pakistan’s security establishment. However, adhering to its tradition of responsible statecraft and good-neighbourliness, India refrained from a disproportionate military response. Instead, it swiftly launched Operation Sindoor, demonstrating its resolve while maintaining strategic restraint.

The operation was aimed to target and dismantle the infrastructure of terror on the one hand and give a stern message to the handlers of terror outfits in Pakistan on the other. The Operation Sindoor was conceived to punish the perpetrators and planners of terror attack and destroy the infrastructure of terror deep inside Pakistan. India took utmost precautions and its armed forces executed the task in such a way that minimized collateral damage and civilian casualties as much as possible. 

On the intervening night of 6-7 May, Indian armed forces targeted nine distinct locations associated with anti-India terror outfits. In Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK), LeT’s Sawai Nala Camp and Jaish-e-Muhammad’s (JeM) Syedna Bilal Camp in Muzaffarabad, LeT’s Gulpur and Abbas Camps in Kotli, and Barnala Camp in Bhimber were completely destroyed. The prized targets in Punjab included LeT Headquarter and Markaz Taiba in Muridke, JeM Headquarter and Markaz Subhanallah in Bahawalpur, Sarjal and Mahmoona Joya Camps in Sialkot. These sites were known to have been used by terror outfits and their masterminds for planning and executing terror attacks in India.

As per the information provided by Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) Pakistan the following table has been prepared.

(Data collected from open source)

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri post-operation made it very clear on 7 May that by targeting these sites, India not only exercised its right to respond, it also aimed to pre-empt and deter cross-border attacks. He further clarified that Indian action was “measured, non-escalatory, proportionate, and responsible”.^[2] As, India had achieved its initial objectives, it was open to discuss terrorism and other related issues with Pakistan. But, Pakistan accused India of targeting civilians and made unsuccessful attempts to target various military installations in India using swarm drones and missiles.

India’s battery of indigenous as well as imported full-spectrum air defence systems neutralized and absorbed almost all the Pakistani vectors in the air with minimal or no damage to its important military installations. With Indian military installations coming under a direct attack, India had no choice but to target specific Pakistani military installations.  The Indian response came in the form of a coordinated attack on at least eleven Pakistani airfields located in Punjab and Sindh provinces. The Indian counter-attack resulted in varying degrees of destruction at these sites. The fact that Indian armed forces were able to inflict the damage to air bases under all three Pakistan Air Commands (Northern, Central and Southern) in just three hours on the intervening night of 9-10 May is no less an achievement.  

In Punjab (Pakistan), a total eight airfields bore the brunt of India’s actions which included Nur Khan/Chaklala (Rawalpindi), Rafiqui (Shorkot) Murid, Rahim Yar Khan, Chunian, Sargodha, Pasrur and Sialkot. Rest of the three airfields that were targeted belong to the Sindh province which included airfields of Sukkur, Bholari, and Jacobabad (See the table below).  Pakistani armed forces could neither stop Indian drones/missiles from reaching their target nor save its military assets and associated infrastructure. India’s precision strikes had destroyed at least 20 per cent of Pakistan Air Force (PAF) infrastructure.^[3] Initially, Pakistan termed Indian claims as exaggerated, but as the dust settled and satellite images appeared in the media it became clear that India had inflicted significant damage to Pakistani installations.^[4] 

(Data collected from open source)

This is no less an achievement, especially in the wake of an active support received by Pakistan from outside powers. This is something armed forces throughout the world envy. Given the widespread destruction of terror infrastructure and its military installations, Pakistan became restless and through its DGMO attempted to engage Indian DGMO to stop the raining of drones/missiles. As, India had already achieved its stated objectives and had no intention to continue its assaults, it agreed to take a pause.

Before the two countries could officially announce the mutual understanding, US President Trump on 10 May at 05:33 PM posted on social media sites about the cessation of hostility indicating its role in tempering down the heat. One of his social media posts read “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire.”^[5] Pakistan termed it as India accepting US as a mediator. However, India repeatedly made it clear that there was no change in its official policy and US did not play any role in the cessation of hostility between the two countries.^[6] Looking at the reactions, it did not go down well in India and gave rise to a perception that the US tried to highjack the process.

India has clarified to Pakistan and the world that the cessation of military hostility from its side is conditional to Pakistan’s behaviour on the terror front. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the nation on 12 May had also made it clear that there should be no confusion anywhere. For the time being, India has paused its counter attack against terrorists and military installations of Pakistan.^[7] India has stopped for now to observe Pakistani behaviour in coming times.

True to its paranoid nature, instead of understanding the real meaning and intent, Pakistan declared victory without realizing the fact that anyone could easily call her out by just looking at the satellite images widely available in media. They had done it earlier in 1947-48, 1965, and 1971 and in 1999 too. At that time, there was no alternate media to expose their claims immediately. This is a different time and nothing can be hidden from public glare for a long time.

The reality is that Pakistan, especially its armed forces, cannot afford to tell the truth to its people, as that would not only discredit the security institutions in the country, but also invite their ire for consuming a significant amount of its national resources and failing in its duties to defend the very nation. In order to mask its failure in the wake the widespread destruction caused by Indian actions, Pakistan promoted Asim Munir to the rank of Field Martial. Possibly, for the first time in history a General has been promoted for his inability to protect his country’s vital military installations.

Pakistan has historically used terror outfits as a low cost and high impact asset to create problems in the region in general and more specifically in India. The policy is unlikely to change in near term, especially when real culprits are getting promotion. The international community needs to take state sponsored terrorism in the region more seriously and impress upon the politico-security elites in Pakistan to abandon it altogether. Not doing so will have serious repercussions for peace and stability in the region and beyond.

India, through its recent responses, has undoubtedly raised the cost of any misadventure from Pakistan. By indicating that Operation Sindoor is still on, it has given a clear message to the handlers of terrorists across the border that India is prepared to deal with both the terror outfits and their sponsors in Pakistan.  Given the history and nature of Pakistani state, the cessation of hostility between India and Pakistan appears to be fragile and could only become permanent if Pakistan mends its ways. It remains to be seen if Pakistan and more particularly its security establishment is ready to learn a fruitful lesson out of this crisis.

Dr Ashish Shukla is Associate Fellow at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. The views expressed here are his own.

Endnotes/References

[1] “No expiry date in Indo-Pakistan understanding on cessation of hostilities: Army,” Times of India, 18 May 2025.

[2] MEA (2025), “Statement by Foreign Secretary: OPERATION SINDOOR,” Ministry of External Affairs, 7 May 2025.

[3] “Operation Sindoor: Details of Pak losses emerge; 20% of PAF infra, several warjets, officer among 50 killed,” The Indian Express, 14 May 2025.

[4] Ahlawat, Sumit (2025), “Nearly 20% Of Pakistan Air Force Infra “Knocked Out,” Global Media Appears To Validate Indian Military’s Claims,” The Eurasian Times, 20 May 2025.  

[5] “India-Pakistan: Trump says ceasefire agreed after 'long night of talks mediated by US'”, Sky News, 10 May 2025.

[6] “US had no role in brokering India-Pakistan ceasefire: What Vikram Misri said to parliamentary panel,” Business Today, 20 May 2025.

[7] Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Address to the Nation on 12 May 2025.