This comment warns that US strategic missteps—especially under Donald Trump—are alienating India, a key Indo-Pacific partner. It highlights shifting alliances, rising anti-American sentiment, and the risk of pushing India toward China and Russia. The piece urges Washington to recalibrate its approach or risk undermining its own regional strategy.
Highlights
- India is vital to balancing China in the Indo-Pacific; weakening India undermines US strategic goals.
- General Munir’s provocative nuclear threats from US soil reflect growing US–Pakistan warmth, alarming India.
- Modi’s upcoming China visit, strengthened ties with Russia, and China’s softened tone signal India’s strategic recalibration.
- Trump’s policies—tariffs, Kashmir remarks, and praise for Pakistan—have eroded two decades of US–India trust.
- S. criticism of India’s Russian oil imports contrasts with its own and allies’ continued trade with Russia.
- Despite tariffs, the US benefits from a large services trade surplus with India, especially in IT and digital sectors.
- Trump’s actions risk reversing years of goodwill, while Pakistan remains deeply anti-American despite US overtures.
- US policymakers must act swiftly to repair ties with India or risk losing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
- The US must understand that weakening India does not strengthen Washington’s position — it strengthens its rivals. Every major US strategic document identifies India as essential to balancing China in the Indo-Pacific.
*****
The last few weeks have seen a flurry of diplomatic activity appearing to reshape the regional balance in Asia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit China after a gap of seven years, while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will travel to New Delhi on 18 August to discuss border issues with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, who visited Moscow recently and extended a formal invitation to President Vladimir Putin to visit India. Putin is expected to do that by the end of 2025. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is expected to visit Russia soon.
At the other end of the spectrum, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, has visited the United States twice in less than two months—a frequency signaling an unusual warmth between Washington and Islamabad. Munir made a provocative statement in the US that should alarm New Delhi, saying: “We’ll start from India’s East, where they have located their most valuable resources, and then move westwards.” For The US was, until recently, regarded in New Delhi as a trusted friend and indispensable strategic partner and the relationship was celebrated in both capitals as the defining partnership of the 21st century. Ironically, today the US is serving as the stage from which nuclear threats against India are being issued marking an extraordinary and deeply troubling descent in the relationship. It smacks of a sense of betrayal; such a moment would have been inconceivable not long ago, yet it has now become an unsettling reality.
This is not an isolated remark. Prior to the Pahalgam incident, Munir emphasized religious differences between India and Pakistan in a way that fuels hostility—whose consequences India painfully witnessed in the shape of the heinous attack on innocent tourists in Baisaran valley. Now, irresponsible and aggressive statements, delivered on American soil, must not be taken lightly especially the nuclear threat, that he issued saying that Pakistan is a nuclear nation ready to “take half the world down with us.” These alarming remarks from American soil reflect not only Pakistan’s aggressive intent but also the strategic confidence it has gained through recent US support.
In response, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs strongly condemned General Munir’s nuclear sabre-rattling, describing Pakistan as an “irresponsible nuclear state.” The MEA stated:
“Nuclear sabre-rattling is Pakistan’s stock-in-trade. Such irresponsible remarks only expose Pakistan’s dangerous posture as a nuclear state. We strongly condemn these statements made from American soil. India remains committed to its national security and will not be cowed down by nuclear blackmail.”
Such developments reveal a complex geopolitical chessboard where surface-level engagements mask deeper strategic calculations. The evolving dynamics signal shifting alliances, strategic posturing, and emerging fault lines that could significantly alter the region’s security architecture.
Trump’s Strategic Missteps
Donald Trump’s handling of US–India relations has inflicted serious damage on what was once hailed as a “defining partnership of the 21st century.” His approach has not only been about tariffs — as many commentators wrongly assume. Had it been only about tariffs, it might have been easier to address. Instead, he has repeatedly and deliberately targeted India’s core national security sensitivities, especially with regard to Kashmir, striking at the very areas where it hurts the most.
Kurt Campbell, former US Deputy Secretary of State and Indo-Pacific Coordinator, underscored the gravity of the situation, stating, “America’s most important relationship in the 21st century is with India. Much of that is now at risk.” He cautioned that “Prime Minister Modi cannot and should not bend the knee to President Trump.”
Global affairs analyst Fareed Zakaria has also warned that by targeting India, the Trump administration risks “wrecking America’s entire Asia strategy.” He criticized the imposition of tariffs on Indian imports as not only counterproductive but also damaging to the broader US goal of counterbalancing China in the Indo-Pacific. Zakaria emphasised that India is a crucial partner for Washington and that singling out India—especially over its purchase of Russian oil—is “very strange” and undermines long-standing bipartisan support. He cautioned that such policies could destabilize the region and harm American interests.
Previous US administrations — from Bill Clinton’s second term to George W. Bush and Barack Obama — invested heavily in building strategic trust with India. They largely respected India’s red lines on Kashmir and refrained from actions that could embolden Pakistan. In stark contrast, Trump has publicly praised Pakistan, empowered its military leadership, undermined India’s regional standing, and weakened its fight against cross-border terrorism on the global stage.
Indeed, the United States recently applauded Pakistan for its “continued success in containing terrorist entities in the region and the world,” according to a joint statement by Pakistan’s foreign ministry. “The United States applauded Pakistan’s continued successes to contain terrorist entities that pose a threat to the peace and security of the region and the world,” the statement read. This explicit endorsement complicates India’s efforts to combat cross-border terrorism originating from Pakistan, effectively undermining India’s legitimate security concerns. By validating Pakistan’s security role, Washington risks weakening India’s diplomatic position and emboldening Islamabad’s aggressive posture.
By endorsing Pakistan repeatedly, Trump has eroded the trust painstakingly built over two decades. He has effectively taken India–US ties back to the Cold War-era tensions of 1971, reviving strains of anti-Americanism that had largely faded from Indian strategic circles. As one senior Indian diplomat said, “By repeatedly endorsing Pakistan and ignoring India’s core concerns, Trump has eroded two decades of mutual trust, likening the setback to “a return to Cold War–era suspicion and strategic distance.”
A Warning from the Shifting Alignments
The current wave of diplomatic activity — with Modi set to visit China, Putin expected to visit India, ongoing high-level exchanges between New Delhi and Moscow, and a notable softening in China’s tone toward India — should serve as a clear warning to Washington. Following the imposition of 50 percent tariffs on India by the US, Chinese state media has notably gone out of its way to praise India, showing “respect and urgency” in hosting Prime Minister Modi. Beijing’s language has shifted. For instance, Global Times highlighted that “as regional powers, China and India have extensive shared interests in areas such as counterterrorism, trade, and cultural exchange,” adding that “a healthy China–India relationship brings positive spillover effects to the region and the world.” The paper even invoked a Hindu proverb — “Help your brother’s boat across, and your own will reach the shore” — to signal goodwill and the desire for “the dragon and the elephant dancing together.”
This media warmth mirrors the messaging from Chinese leadership, with recent statements emphasizing India’s “constructive role in regional stability” and readiness to “strengthen communication and cooperation.” The shift in tone has been reinforced by the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s criticism of US tariffs on Indian goods, warning that “if you give a bully an inch, he will take a mile” — a line amplified across state-controlled outlets to portray Trump’s approach to trade as unreasonable and strategically misguided.
If India, China, and Russia were to align even partially on certain issues, it could severely undermine the long-term vision of US strategic primacy in the Indo-Pacific. American policymakers must recognize that their current approach is pushing India toward alternative power centers.
Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton also warned, “Trump’s tariffs against India are intended to hurt Russia but they could push India closer to Russia and to China to oppose these tariffs,” calling this approach “an enormous mistake and entirely counterproductive for America.”
Moreover, China’s unprecedented courting of India is a clear recognition of India’s growing weight as a pivotal geopolitical actor in the international system. It stands in stark contrast to Donald Trump’s recent dismissals of India as a “dead economy” and underscores how indispensable New Delhi has become for any major geopolitical realignment, whether in Asia or beyond.
The Hypocrisy of Sanctions and Trade Policy
Singling out India for punitive action is not just unfair — it is strategically short-sighted. Trump’s fixation on India’s imports of Russian oil signals selective outrage, while the US itself continues to import critical commodities from Russia. Between January and May 2025, US imports included $806 million in fertilizers, $596 million in uranium and plutonium, and $502 million in palladium—marking year-on-year increases of 21 per cent, 28 per cent, and 37 per cent, respectively. Total US imports from Russia stood at around $2.5 billion in the first half of 2025, though down from $14.1 billion in the same period of 2021.
Meanwhile, China buys over 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil—more than twice India’s intake—yet faces no similar pressure. Several European Union countries, including Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, Czechia, and France, continue to import Russian oil through pipelines or other means despite sanctions. NATO ally Turkey and America’s strategic ally Japan also maintain significant trade in Russian energy and goods, but India alone is targeted.
This is at odds with the 2022 US Indo-Pacific Strategy, which identified India as a “like-minded partner and leader in South Asia and the Indian Ocean” and pledged to “support India’s continued rise”—acknowledging its centrality to a free and open Indo-Pacific. By applying punitive measures against India while sustaining its own imports from Russia and tolerating similar actions by close allies, Washington has not only undermined its Indo-Pacific strategy but also caused serious damage to its credibility as an important partner in the region.
Moreover, this selective targeting overlooks the broader and more complex economic ties between the US and India. India is not only a major importer of goods but also a significant digital market for American services such as Facebook, WhatsApp, and many other technology platforms. In 2024, India’s information technology (IT) exports reached an estimated $224.4 billion, marking a 12.5 per cent increase from the previous year. The US benefits substantially from this sector, with major Indian IT firms like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, and Wipro generating significant revenues, contributing to a US services trade surplus with India. When accounting for revenues from digital services, software, cloud computing, and other technology-related sectors, the US enjoys an estimated annual surplus of $35–40 billion with India. Thus, while tariffs focus narrowly on goods, the digital services trade actually tips the balance in America’s favour.
Rising Anti-American Sentiment
Perhaps the most dangerous consequence of Trump’s policy is the subtle revival of anti-Americanism in India. For years, positive public sentiment toward the US in India had grown—distinctly outpacing views of its neighbour. A 2023 Pew Research Center survey found that 65 percent of Indians viewed the US favourably, while 70–72 percent expressed positive views on American global influence. Trump’s praise of Pakistan and disregard for Indian sensitivities now risk reversing this longstanding goodwill. In effect, Trump and the US are shooting themselves in the foot by alienating their most important partner in the region, a nation identified in the 2022 US Indo-Pacific Strategy as a leader in South Asia and a key strategic ally—without whom the very Indo-Pacific strategy cannot succeed.
In sharp contrast, Pakistan’s streets have for decades echoed with slogans such as “Down with America” and “America murdabad” (death to America), reflecting a deeply ingrained anti-US narrative. A Gallup poll revealed that 72 percent of Pakistanis consider the US an enemy rather than a friend, and this entrenched sentiment has persisted consistently over the past two decades. Similarly, Pew data confirms that 74 percent of Pakistanis view the US as an enemy, while only 8 percent consider it a partner.
While the political, strategic, and bureaucratic classes in India have so far maintained a pragmatic approach toward the US and refrained from making any intemperate statement, street-level sentiment is shifting. If this continues, it will weaken the very foundation of the partnership, making future cooperation harder to rebuild.
The Road Ahead for the US
The United States must understand that weakening India does not strengthen Washington’s position — it strengthens its rivals. Every major US strategic document identifies India as essential to balancing China in the Indo-Pacific. If the partnership is allowed to drift or deteriorate, Washington will be ceding ground to Beijing.
It is imperative for the US strategic establishment — in Congress, the State Department, and the Pentagon — to prevail upon Trump and recalibrate the policy toward India. Damage control must begin immediately if the partnership is to be salvaged. Otherwise, the US risks losing not just an important partner, but also its credibility as a reliable ally in the region.
Moreover, the India–US partnership is not a one-dimensional relationship; it spans every sphere of human endeavour, from technology to culture and security. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi observed during his 2023 US visit, “No corner of human enterprise is untouched by the partnership between our two great countries.” It is vital for both countries to recognize this depth and act decisively to arrest the current downward trajectory in their ties.
*Dr Imran Khurshid is an Associate Research Fellow at ICPS. He is a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Kashmir and his areas of interest include Indo-Pacific and South Asian security issues. The views expressed here are his own.
Comments